📊 Brazil, Indiana, and Berkshire Hathaway

Tariff reciprocity, record flooding, and position sizing.

Aug 16, 2026

Greetings! Happy National Roller Coaster Day to those celebrating.

Let’s get into today’s top stories.

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🌎 GLOBAL NEWS

🇧🇷 Brazil invokes reciprocity against American tariffs. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has triggered an economic reciprocity mechanism in response to tariffs imposed by President Trump. The move opens a formal process that could eventually produce Brazilian countermeasures. It does not automatically mean retaliation will follow. Trump imposed tariffs in July on hundreds of Brazilian exports, with duties reaching 37.5% on some products. His administration accuses Brazil of unfair trade practices. Lula rejects that claim and says the measures are politically motivated. Brazil holds a presidential election in October. Lula is seeking reelection against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a Trump ally who met with US officials before the higher tariffs were proposed. Brazil’s Foreign Ministry has requested consultations with Washington. Lula says he prefers dialogue but wants Brazil treated with respect. The tariff dispute is unfolding alongside a broader diplomatic rupture. The State Department recently revoked Brazil’s ambassador’s visa after Brasília denied visas to two American diplomats. Washington has also accused Brazil of delaying approval of Trump’s ambassadorial nominee. Brazilian officials dispute that account and say diplomatic protocol was not followed. The reciprocity law gives Lula a legal framework for escalating if negotiations fail. For now, the government is signaling that leverage and negotiation will proceed together. The confrontation adds trade policy to an election already shaped by the strained relationship between countries.

🇲🇲 Burma verifies 308K Rohingya for eventual return. Burma’s military-backed government says 308,797 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh have been verified as former residents of Rakhine state. The announcement comes as the Rohingya exodus enters its ninth year. More than 700K Rohingya fled across the border after Burmas military launched a brutal 2017 crackdown. The United Nations and other international actors have described the campaign as ethnic cleansing and raised accusations of genocide. Burma still refuses to recognize the Rohingya among its 135 lawful ethnic minorities. Authorities instead call them Bengalis, implying they originated in Bangladesh. Bangladesh submitted a list containing 828,824 refugees for verification. Burma says it has reviewed 426,545 names so far. Of those, 113,507 could not be verified. Authorities separately classified 4,241 people as involved in what they called terrorist activity. Burma says verified former residents can return once security conditions improve. That condition remains formidable. A 2018 repatriation agreement between Burma and Bangladesh has failed to produce large-scale returns. Burma’s 2021 military takeover triggered nationwide armed resistance. Fighting between the military and the ethnic Arakan Army intensified in Rakhine in 2023. The Arakan Army now controls much of the state. Fresh violence has driven additional Rohingya toward Bangladesh and elsewhere. Verification therefore answers one bureaucratic question while leaving the central one unresolved: whether refugees can return voluntarily, safely, and with durable rights.

🇺🇸 LOCAL NEWS

🌧️ Historic Indiana flooding kills at least six people. Days of storms and record-setting floods have killed at least six people across Indiana. The victims include a 4-year-old boy, two men, and three women. The boy died after strong winds sent a tree crashing through his bedroom in Jennings County. Floodwaters swept through communities along rivers and creeks across central Indiana. The White River peaked in Indianapolis after forcing hundreds of residents from homes near the river and its canals. First responders used boats to reach people stranded by rapidly rising water. Elsewhere, 19-year-old Matthew Morey died after jumping from a bridge into the swollen Mississinewa River. Stephanie Sallee, 58, and her dog were found after her vehicle was apparently swept from a flooded road. The White River crested above 24 feet in Anderson and Noblesville. Those levels surpassed records dating to 1913. Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett called the flooding the city’s worst in more than 30 years. Governor Mike Braun’s office reported more than 350 evacuations plus scores of rescues and welfare checks. President Trump approved Braun’s request for federal disaster assistance. Roads and bridges have been damaged or washed out across the state. Nearly 130K utility customers remained without power, down from a peak near 300K. Rain was beginning to ease around Indianapolis, but forecasters still warned of dangerous fast-moving water. Recovery is beginning as Indiana measures a disaster in lost lives, damaged infrastructure, and century-old records broken.

🌳 Kentucky park shooting kills one and wounds four. A shooting at Charles Young Park in downtown Lexington, Kentucky, left one person dead and four others injured. Lexington police responded shortly before 7 p.m. after reports of gunfire. Officers found five people who had been shot. One victim was pronounced dead at a hospital. The four surviving victims were believed to have non-life-threatening injuries. Two children were among those wounded. Police Chief Lawrence Weathers identified their ages as 4 and 14. Authorities have not released the victims’ names. Police also have not publicly identified a suspect. Weathers said investigators did not believe there was an ongoing threat to the public. He urged anyone with information to contact police. The shooting occurred in a public park near downtown Lexington. Investigators have not announced a motive. They also have not explained whether the victims knew one another or the shooter. The department’s initial account offered few details beyond the casualty count and continuing investigation. The involvement of two children has intensified attention around the case. Police are asking witnesses and anyone aware of someone inclined to use a weapon to come forward. The investigation now centers on identifying who fired the shots and what led to violence that killed one person and wounded four more in a public park.

🗂️ MISC

💼 Berkshire makes a much bigger bet on Alphabet. Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B) sharply increased its stake in Alphabet ($GOOGL) and added to homebuilder investments during the second quarter. The moves offer a clearer view of CEO Greg Abel’s capital-allocation strategy after succeeding Warren Buffett at the start of 2026. Abel agreed in June to make a $10B stock investment in Alphabet. Berkshire then bought roughly 48.1M additional Alphabet shares during the quarter. Its total position reached about 106M shares by June 30th. The stake was worth roughly $37.76B at quarter end. Berkshire had owned only 17.8M Alphabet shares worth $5.6B at the end of December. Alphabet says it plans to raise $80B for computing infrastructure supporting its AI products. Berkshire also increased its position in Lennar ($LEN) by nearly 30%. It opened a small new stake in D.R. Horton ($DHI) worth about $581K. In July, Berkshire completed its $6.8B acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison. The conglomerate also increased holdings in Delta Air Lines ($DAL) and Macy’s ($M). At the same time, Berkshire reduced several financial positions. Its stakes in Bank of America ($BAC) and Ally Financial ($ALLY) fell about 6% and 6.9%. Shares held in Capital One Financial ($COF) were cut 58%. Berkshire exited Constellation Brands ($STZ) entirely. Buffett remains chairman and Berkshire’s largest shareholder. The filing suggests Abel is pairing a much larger AI infrastructure exposure with continued conviction in American housing.

🛍️ Retail earnings and Fed minutes take center stage. Wall Street enters a consequential week with major retailers reporting earnings and the Federal Reserve (Fed) releasing minutes from its July meeting. Home Depot ($HD) reports first. Target ($TGT) and Lowe’s ($LOW) follow one day later. Walmart ($WMT) reports after them. Together, the results will offer a fresh look at how households are navigating inflation above 3%. The American war with Iran has pushed oil and gasoline prices higher. Those costs can spill into groceries, transportation, and nearly every product moved through a supply chain. Home Depot and Lowe’s should provide clues about home-improvement demand and the housing market. Target and Walmart can reveal whether households are trading down, delaying purchases, or absorbing higher prices. The reports arrive after American retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July. Investors will also parse minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting. Policymakers held interest rates steady at that meeting. Officials dissented in favor of higher rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described the debate as a vigorous internal disagreement. Wall Street still expects at least one rate increase before the end of 2026. That makes the minutes important for clues about how close officials are to tightening again. The week therefore places household spending and monetary policy under the same microscope. Retailers will show what consumers are doing, while the Fed minutes may show what policymakers intend to do about the economy those consumers are navigating.