📊 Energy Shocks, Heat Deaths, and Gas Tax

Hormuz pressure, border tragedy, and market denial.

May 12, 2026

Greetings! Happy National Technology Day to those celebrating.

Let’s get into today’s top stories.

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🌎 GLOBAL NEWS

🇹🇭 Asia’s energy buffers wear thin. Asia’s energy cushions are thinning as the Iran war grinds on. Thailand abandoned its diesel price cap after subsidies ran low. Governments first treated the Strait of Hormuz closure as a short emergency. They conserved power. They redirected fuel. They used subsidies. They dipped into stockpiles. That bought time, not immunity. The second wave is now showing up in airfares, shipping rates, utility bills, and growth forecasts. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) estimates 8.8M people could be pushed into poverty. It also warns of $299B in potential Asia-Pacific economic losses. Brent crude has climbed from budget assumptions near $70 to roughly $120 at its peak. India is protecting cooking gas for about 330M households. That has squeezed fertilizer supply. Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to buy locally and travel less abroad. The Philippines moved to a four-day workweek to save fuel. Vietnam extended fuel-tax relief while jet fuel shortages cut flights. The shock has turned energy policy into household arithmetic.

🇮🇷 Iran ceasefire diplomacy enters triage. President Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on life support. That is not diplomacy as theater. It is diplomacy in triage. Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal after officials said it offered some nuclear concessions. He also said Iran failed to put a promised uranium extraction provision in writing. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful. It has not publicly agreed to give up uranium enrichment. The standoff leaves the Strait of Hormuz closed. That waterway remains a global artery for oil and gas. America is also blockading Iranian ports. Trump wants Chinese President Xi Jinping to pressure Iran. China is the largest buyer of Iranian sanctioned crude. Iran’s proposal sought American recognition of its sovereignty over Hormuz. It also asked to reopen the strait while broader negotiations continue. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel and America could reengage militarily if talks fail. The ceasefire exists on paper. The markets are already pricing the paper as flammable.

🇺🇸 LOCAL NEWS

🚆 Six bodies found dead from Texas heat. Six people were found dead inside a shipping container at a Texas rail yard. Federal agents are investigating it as a potential human smuggling event. The container was at a Union Pacific Corporation ($UNP) rail yard in Laredo. Laredo sits near the border with Mexico. A Union Pacific employee found the bodies Sunday afternoon. Jose Baeza, public information officer for the Laredo Police Department, confirmed the discovery. Webb County medical examiner Dr. Corinne Stern is conducting autopsies. She completed one autopsy on a 29-year-old Mexican woman. Stern ruled that death accidental from hyperthermia, or heat stroke. She believes the others may also have died from heat stroke. She estimated they may have died in less than eight hours. Identification cards and phones suggested some victims may be from Mexico and Honduras. Fingerprints were shared with Border Patrol through the Missing Alien Program. Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) is assisting Laredo police and Texas Rangers. The container’s travel history remains unclear. So does why the people inside could not climb out.

⚖️ Mifepristone access gets a temporary stay. The Supreme Court kept mifepristone access intact for now. Justice Samuel Alito issued the temporary order Monday. It protects pharmacy and mail access until at least Thursday. It also preserves access without an in-person doctor visit. The case concerns mifepristone, a widely used abortion pill. Louisiana is challenging Food and Drug Administration (FDA) rules that eased access. The state says those rules undermine its abortion ban. It also questions the drug’s safety. FDA scientists first approved mifepristone in 2000. They have repeatedly deemed it safe and effective. Lower courts sided with Louisiana for now. The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals said mail and telehealth access should be suspended during litigation. Medication abortions accounted for nearly two-thirds of American abortions in 2023. Mainstream medical groups and drug companies warned against restricting the pill. They said a ruling for abortion opponents could disrupt the drug approval system. The court’s pause keeps the fight suspended, not settled.

🗂️ MISC

🚧 Gas-tax relief runs into Congress. President Trump wants to suspend the federal gasoline tax. He cannot do it alone. Congress would have to approve. The political pitch is simple. Gas averaged $4.52 a gallon Monday. That was 50% higher than before the Iran war began. The federal tax is 18.4 cents per gallon on gasoline. Diesel carries a 24.4 cent federal tax. Those taxes generate more than $23B yearly for highways and public transit. Trump said the suspension should last until appropriate. Republican Sen. Josh Hawley said he will introduce legislation. Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna said she will do the same. Senate Majority Leader John Thune sounded skeptical. He said he would rather reopen the Strait of Hormuz and normalize prices. Republican Sen. Rand Paul said the tax is not the real issue. He said the war should be suspended instead. The policy is relief politics with an infrastructure bill attached.

📈 Wall Street prices war and shrugs. Oil rose Monday, but American stocks still edged higher. Brent crude climbed 2.9% to $104.21. The increase followed President Trump’s warning that the Iran ceasefire was on life support. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) rose 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 95 points. The Nasdaq composite added 0.1% to another record. The market is not calm. It is selective. Most stocks inside the S&P 500 fell. The Mosaic Company ($MOS) dropped 1.8% after weaker quarterly results. Dollar General Corporation ($DG) fell 7.6% as fuel pressure hit low-cushion consumers. Royal Caribbean Group ($RCL) fell 4.3%. Southwest Airlines Co. ($LUV) lost 3.2%. Fox Corporation ($FOXA) rose 7.6% on stronger profit and revenue. More than four-fifths of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations. FactSet says earnings growth is tracking near 28%. War is expensive, but profits are still doing pushups.